Despite the business jet aviation industry facing a modest pace for near-term orders due to an uncertain economic and political environment, Honeywell forecasts up to 8,300 new business jet deliveries worth US$ 249 billion from 2017 to 2027, down 2-3% points from the 2016 10-year forecast.
According to the 26th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook released by Honeywell, the aerospace industry also faces a very competitive used aircraft market. "Declining used aircraft prices, continued low commodities prices, and economic and political uncertainties in many business jet markets remain as near-term concerns for new jet purchases, leading to a modest growth in 2018," said Ben Driggs, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace.
"That said, there are several new and exciting aircraft models coming to market, which will drive solid growth in new business jet purchases in the midterm and long term," Driggs explained further.
The document highlights that Latin America will be the only region with higher purchase plans in 2017 compared with last year, pointing out that slightly lower Brazilian purchase plans compared with 2016 results will be offset by significantly higher purchase plans in Mexico.
Honeywell says that 29% of the Latin America sample fleet is expected to be replaced or added to with new jet purchases over the next five years — 2-3% higher than last year's survey. Increased plans from Mexican operators and resilience in the Brazilian operator base will help drive higher results this year, despite flat oil prices so far in 2017.
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell also utilizes information gathered from interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with over 1,500 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide.
Honeywell Aerospace has strong presence in Mexico. Honeywell's Mexicali Research & Technology Center in Baja California is a systems integration lab that employs 350 people engaged in the design, engineering and testing of components for aircraft systems.
Additionally, the company operates the Honeywell Chihuahua Machining Operations (HCMO), a major production facility that has been recognized as a Center of Excellence in the area of advanced precision mechanics for commercial and military aircraft engines.